Emerging Deconstructed Nations in the 21st Century

June 24, 2016 – Back in 2013 I posted a series of articles entitled Society and Politics in 2100. In my crystal ball gazing I argued that traditional political parties would be usurped by social cause movements, and that regionalism would trump national identity. I also argued that loosely constructed federalism rather than tightly bounded multi-nation organizations would dominate the world by century end with city states emerging. I stated that by 2100 we would not recognize the geopolitical map with nation states no longer our principal means of organization.

All of these speculations have come into sharp focus following yesterday’s vote in the United Kingdom to reject membership in the European Union. In an act of direct democracy, the people of Britain narrowly have chosen to leave an organization founded in the wreckage of a post-two-world-war Europe, and designed to ensure that national xenophobia never re-emerges as a divisive force on the continent.

The map below is a startling display of the emergence of regionalism as a political force. It shows that the 21st century is unfolding in ways many would have never predicted. Note the regional preferences displayed here. The populations of middle England and a good portion of Wales have opted out of participation in the European Union, whereas Scotland, Northern Ireland, the City of London, Gibraltar and the Isles of Scilly have opted to remain.

Does this foreshadow even greater devolution from the existing nation-state status quo? Absolutely.  In a vote in 2014 Scotland sought its independence from the United Kingdom and at the time the results went 55 to 45% in favour of staying united. Today, a day after the “Brexit” results the Scottish government began a process to hold a second referendum on separation. And the likelihood of independence for the Scots considering the results shown on the map above is pretty much in the bag. Northern Ireland also faces a stark choice. Remain steadfast with the rump United Kingdom that will remain after Scotland leaves, or join its southern neighbour, Ireland, which is a member of the European Union. For Gibraltar it may mean union with Spain. And what about London? Could this be the beginning of the emergence of a city state smack dab in the heart of England?

Could such an outcome have been predictable? Social scientists studying the impact of technology on nation states will say yes. And expect the Brexit vote to destabilize other European states with Catalans separating from Spain, the Flemish opting out of Belgium, the Bretons inevitably out of France. One hopes that these devolutions are not like those that occurred in Yugoslavia but with the rise of demagogues and xenophobic national parties we may see the entire rethinking of what is the European Union. Instead of the progressive movement of the last forty years from economic union to political, it appears that the political may come to an end leaving only a looser federation with a common market.

The vote yesterday has opened a Pandora’s box. The consequences are as of yet unforeseen.