I’m Blown Away by People Who Believe that Climate Change is a Hoax

November 25, 2015 – Yesterday while walking my dog I entered into a conversation with a neighbour on the subject of climate change. He began by stating, “Do you really believe it’s real?” I began by listing the enormous amount of scientific evidence accumulated over the last four decades. I talked to him about the physics and chemistry of the atmosphere and how larger accumulations of carbon dioxide convert photons of sunlight into radiative heat accounting for the upward curve of plotted mean average temperatures over several decades (see the two NASA produced graphs below and note the correlation between CO2 increases and rising temperatures). I talked about the record keeping of the reinsurance industry in its payouts for extreme weather events and how the number has exponentially grown over 60 years. It was like talking to a wall.

He pointed to the geologic record of the planet as refutation for all of the above. As we departed each others company it occurred to me that cognitive dissonance was at work, that belief was triumphant over evidence. And then today I read Carolyn Gregoire’s November 23rd piece, “Why Some Conservatives Can’t Accept That Climate Change is Real” and found within it the answer to the frustration I felt after walking away from that conversation.

Gregoire points out that 97% or more of climate scientists see climate change as linked to human causes. The quoted number is derived from studies appearing in peer-reviewed scientific journals. A 2013 analysis of peer-reviewed literature references 11,944 journal contributions with not 3% but 0.3% expressing uncertainty about the causes of global warming and with none denying that warming isn’t happening.

Here’s the kicker. Despite all this overwhelming peer-reviewed evidence, 56% of Republicans in the U.S. Congress today deny that what is being observed has human origins. Donald Trump, the billionaire aspirant to the Republican Presidential nomination states, “I am not a believer…..I believe there’s weather.” And he’s not alone in his beliefs. Most of the Republican field is packed with climate change deniers.

Why are leaders like Trump in denial? University of Victoria environmental psychologist, Dr. Robert Gifford, states, “nobody wants to be wrong, and that elicits confirmation bias.” In other words we ignore the science and seek information that supports our beliefs. It may be that our work makes it inconvenient to believe in global warming and so we then ignore evidence. Or it may be that we are uncomfortable with the “facts” and seek answers that make us feel comfortable.

Gregoire also points out an abiding distrust of experts today. If you have ever read Sherry Seethaler’s book, “Lies, Damned Lies and Science,” you understand why the public is often confused by the evidence. After all the tobacco industry used skewed science to support the cigarette industry for many decades despite the cancer link. In her preface to the book, Seethaler quotes Cardinal Wolsey who in the sixteenth century observed, “be very, very careful what you put into that head, because you will never, ever get it out.”

Whether faith or science, discredence, the distrust of experts, abounds in American society today. Back in January of 2014, an article in Mother Jones showed polling results from a Yale and George Mason University study on people’s beliefs about climate change. To the surprise of the researchers the number of people denying climate change (see the red line in the graph below) in the United States was on the increase. And for those who did believe global warming was real, an increasing number denied it had human origins.

As for cognitive dissonance, the discomfort experienced when confronted with evidence that contradicts belief, it appears that most seek refuge in finding the obscure to support belief over reason. Environmental sociologist at Michigan State University, Dr. Aaron McCright, states “a single exposure to a denial message significantly reduces subjects’ belief in and concern about climate change.” So if a U.S. congressional representative or a Donald Trump says “I don’t believe,” or questions the validity of the science, the opinions carry more weight than all the peer-reviewed journal articles on the subject.

Telling it straight there is no doubt that climate denial is a social phenomenon. It has no basis in science. And disbelief is widespread. So one wonders in the run up to COP 21 in Paris, where the nations of the world are congregating to come up with a global plan to combat climate change, just how committed is the American public or other nations’ populations to seeing carbon reductions through to the end? My guess is that the next “authority” to question the science will just make it easier for the public to not commit to action, moving the low-carbon goal posts even further away, and making it harder for generations that follow to cope with a world they inherit from their cognitively dissonant ancestors.