Why Calling Out Coal is a Necessary First Step in Mitigating Climate Change

Glasgow got one big thing right and then backed away to some degree from a hard commitment. What was it? The participating nations cited coal as the immediate problem in taking steps to carbon emission reductions. The weasel words “phase out” got replaced in the last moment by even worse language, “phase down,” but nonetheless, naming coal represented a breakthrough of sorts. Let’s hope when COP27 convenes in Sharm el-Sheikh next fall, that oil and then natural gas follow.

What will phase down entail? Australia, China, and India remain committed to producing and burning coal to produce electricity and fuel heavy industries like steel and concrete. But for how much longer? These three countries have all pledged to achieve net-zero emissions: Australia in 2050, China in 2060, and India in 2070. Between now and then does that mean they will continue to extract and burn coal with impunity? No. Why not? Because of ongoing COP meetings, where burning coal will continue to come up in these annual get-togethers, and in nation-to-nation conversations such as that which occurred between the United States and China during COP26 in Glasgow.

So as disappointed as I am with the results of this year’s climate conference, I recognize that moving all 196 nations in attendance in the same direction is a monumental undertaking, and to some degree, the vast majority are going the right way, just some a lot slower than others, and slower than the youth of the world and people like me would like.

What should be the focus of the next COP on the shores of the Red Sea? I think two areas where immediate action is needed include:

• Remediation – providing the expertise, funding and action to correct damage from climate change already happening.
• Solutions – capacity building for known climate change mitigation solutions, and investment and development of new ones both natural and technological.

The Developed World for the most part was given a reprieve at this year’s COP event. In paying lip service to the contribution that oil and natural gas are making to global warming, the energy infrastructure of richer nations was largely unaffected by the pronouncements in the final communique. That is unlikely to be the end result at COP27. By then nations are to report new target emission reduction budgets and plans on how to achieve them. And every year after, I suspect that rising concern from youth, climate activists, and the majority of the world’s population will continue to push and prod governments, heavy industry, transportation, agriculture, forestry, fisheries, and energy producers to increasingly modify their behaviours.

Will everything change after COP27. Bloomberg Green’s Gernot Wagner, who teaches at New York University and an attendee at COP26, says we should be prepared for rapid change. He goes on to explain the social dynamics of positive tipping points that could be the trigger that begins to stabilize Earth’s climate by mid-century. Let’s hope his words turn out to forecast a good outcome. Wagner writes in his Bloomberg Green daily newsletter:

“For so long nothing changes until suddenly everything does. It is clear that negative climate news is still outpacing policy and politics, but there are positive signs aplenty. Most importantly, when global politics, finance, and societal forces more broadly begin pushing in the right direction, that positive wave, too, will seem like a tsunami. Many of us might wish for just that tsunami to happen, but it, too, will come with its own unique challenges. The key is to prepare now so that at COP27 and beyond, we can create the conditions to channel it in a productive direction.”