A Case Study: St. Louis and Middle America in the Age of Climate Change

February 15, 2020 – Welcome back Emily Folk, a frequent content contributor to this blog. In this article she takes a look at one U.S. city and what it may face without any change to current policies by city, state, and federal governments regarding global warming.

This is Emily’s fifth posting here. She writes a lot about sustainability and renewable energy, and you can read more of her work at her blog site Conservation Folks.

Is the climate crisis past fixing? While some countries make an effort to try and stop its worst impacts, expect to see some alarming changes in the mid-decades of the 21st century and beyond. From record-breaking storms to unusual temperatures occurring far more frequently, we are already living the crisis.

The poorest of us will feel climate change the most. And cities will not be spared, even those on coastlines and away from rising sea levels. 

That’s why looking at St. Louis and its surrounding area, at the confluence of the Mississippi-Missouri River system is worth studying. Just what will the climate future bring to this Middle America city?

St. Louis in the Coming Decades

Many of us can vouch that the weather is changing in our lifetimes. Places that used to have snow throughout the winter may not see it at all 30 to 40 years in the future. For example, New York City with average summer high temperatures in 2000 at 28.4 Celsius (83.1 Fahrenheit), by 2050 will climb to 31 Celsius (87.9 Fahrenheit.

While today in St. Louis, according to Climate Central, the city is experiencing eight more days of stagnant summer air per year than in 1973. The mosquito breeding season has expanded from 100 days in the 1980s to a new average of 131 days. And in the Missouri hinterland near the city, which averages 15 days per year of temperatures exceeding 35 Celsius, 95 Fahrenheit and above, by 2050, the number is expected to rise to 60 days. With 170,000 Missouri residents deemed vulnerable to extreme temperatures, including the elderly, young and infirm, the state will face a significant health crisis.

Rising temperatures in Missouri will not only create health impacts for human and animal life, it is expected to raise the potential for widespread drought by 70%.

Sitting at the confluence of the two great river systems of Middle America, St. Louis is also expected to be at greater risk of flooding by  as much as 40% by 2050,

What to Expect by Century End

If the change in 2050 seems dramatic, the years that follow are expected to be much worse. Tossed between extreme heat and drought, the city by 2070 will regularly experience longer stretches without precipitation than at any point in its recorded history. And by 2090, severe storms that currently hit the Midwest once in five years are expected to arrive as often as every year. The so-called 20-year storm will be striking the region every six to seven years.

Expect migration of people away from riverbanks toward higher ground, and also with more flooding, easier transmission of bacteria and disease because of standing water in industrial and residential areas.

Temperatures will reach unthinkable new highs. Today, the average summer temperature in St. Louis stands at 30.5 Celsius (86.9 Fahrenheit). Climate models predict based on present greenhouse gas (GHG) emission levels not coming down, a likely rise of 6.27 Celsius (11.3. Fahrenheit) temperatures that Pharr, Texas, experiences today. Previously livable areas further to the south than St. Louis will be on track to becoming inhospitable at best, and unlivable at worst.

Imagine winter in St. Louis in 2100. It won’t look anything like St. Louis circa 2020. The city and surrounding region will see far less snow. Snow melts from upstream on both the Mississippi and Missouri will cause more frequent floods. And intense heat will wreak havoc on local farms, slashing crop yields by half.

The city projects a mean rise of double-digit Fahrenheit temperatures by the summer of 2100. It will be so hot it will be dangerous to go outside for much of the day. Cooling demand will mean energy producers will find themselves facing new record peak loads.

So What is St. Louis and the Heartland Doing?

Cities are particularly vulnerable to rising global temperatures. Predominantly made of concrete, asphalt and steel, they produce heat islands in the middle of their hinterlands. But cities also have the financial means and people skills to tackle the challenge of rising temperatures, far better than the rural areas and small towns in Missouri and along the two river systems. That’s why according to the latest States at Risk Report Card, Missouri’s most recent grade is an F for its climate change preparation while St. Louis and other cities in the state receive higher grades for dealing with extreme heat, drought and inland flooding.

Missouri has implemented no statewide initiatives to address the growing climate crisis. There has been little effort to engage in public outreach, to draw up climate change adaptation plans or to increase state spending to prepare for the future. Nothing in terms of budgeting and investment has been done to address climate change projections And although it may yet be possible to slow the effects of climate change in America’s heartland, for the time being, St. Louis and the rest of Missouri finds itself in an unenviable position of being climate change mitigation and adaptation laggards.

What We Can Do

Scientists base all of the above scenarios for St. Louis and its hinterland on the notion that humans will not change our ways. This is a forecast without any enactment of climate mitigation and adaptation policies by state, municipal and federal governments.

But if we were to put in place climate mitigation policies we can lessen these dreaded forecasts. Switching to clean energy worldwide can do a lot to prevent the worst from happening. Ending our use of internal combustion engine transportation by switching to environmentally-friendly vehicles that produce low to zero emissions is a very doable step. Every sector of the economy from manufacturing to construction to agriculture and retail can adopt sustainability best practices.