China Appears to be Ahead of the Downward Curve Commitment It Made in 2014 on Carbon Emissions

October 8, 2016 – In a world where Russia and the United States are freezing themselves into another Cold War it is hard to believe that any progress can be made on the climate change front. But in this asymmetric geopolitical reality we live in here in the 21st century, on climate change there may be a glimmer of a thaw.

It appears more of us on the planet are taking climate change seriously. I’m not including the U.S. Congress or Senate in that statement. Nor am I including Donald Trump. President Barack Obama, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and the leaders of the European Union recognize the need to act and have taken the first steps in beginning to bend the atmospheric carbon curve from its ever increasing upward thrust.

Along with them is China. for the last two years the People’s Republic has lowered coal use and carbon emissions. In 2015 the former by 3.7%. The latter by 1-2%. This follows a similar 2014 decrease. This is a far different scenario from the one contemplated when China and the United States agreed in 2014 to collectively tackle global carbon emissions. At that time the Chinese agreed to reach maximum carbon emissions by 2030 before beginning reductions. Well, based on these last two years it appears that the emissions curve from China may be headed downward 15 years ahead of schedule.

Why?

• Chinese industrialization and economic growth has slowed down. Investment within China is moving away from heavily polluting manufacturing industries to service and knowledge businesses. The latter two are far less carbon intensive.
• In addition the Chinese government has started withdrawing its subsidy programs to extractive and heavy industries.
• China has also instituted a cap-and-trade program which initially focused on key cities and heavily industrialized districts, but now is being broadened to cover the entire country.
• China is providing incentives to remove internal combustion and diesel vehicles from the roads replacing them with hybrids and electric vehicles (EVs).
• China has placed a moratorium on development of new coal mines.
• China is heavily investing in renewable energy spending $111 billion last year. In the last five years solar capacity has grown by 16,800%, wind power by 400%.
• China has plans to replace coal power infrastructure not only with solar and wind but also nuclear with 60 plants scheduled for completion in the next ten years.
• China is building a high-speed rail network and has already completed almost 19,000 kilometers (11,800 miles) of what will become a national network.
• China has launched climate bonds to attract investment in green projects throughout the country.

Other national governments should take heed. The Chinese are seriously committed to greenhouse gas reductions despite what Donald Trump spouts using it as justification for climate change denial and inaction on green policies.

And although you may not like China’s muscle flexing in the South China Sea as it attempts to establish its hegemony in South and East Asia, and you may here in the West equate it with Russia’s desire to reestablish the old Soviet empire, it is important to acknowledge how much more responsible China has become as a global player when addressing climate change. The same cannot be said for Russia. And between the U.S. Presidency and an obstreperous Congress, it is hard to see the progress being made in the United States as anything long-term.