Climate Change Isn’t The Only Human-Generated Crisis Our Species Faces In The 21st Century

So what other than climate change poses an existential crisis to humanity? The obvious one can be framed by the conflict in Ukraine with Russia’s leader threatening to use nuclear weapons, claiming the U.S. use of them first in 1945 sets a precedent. The other one is population growth and the changing demographic distribution of young and old across the planet. It is the latter that I am addressing in this posting.

A recent article in The New York Times highlights the dilemma we face as the century unfolds. It is not just that our human population is growing, but also where it’s growing that represents a significant challenge.

Population growth is unevenly distributed. The Global North countries are experiencing lower birth rates and an aging population. The Global South countries have younger populations and are reproducing at higher rates. The Global South is resource and economic opportunity limited. The result is a surplus of working-age people looking to feed and house their families.

In the New York Times article, it notes:

• In 2050, 40% of people in Europe and East Asian nations will be 65 or older.
• Japan gives us a picture of the near future with 2 working-age adults there for every 1 person aged 65 or older today, and with the latter number expected to grow to 7 by 2050.
• By 2050 China will have 200 million fewer residents of working age, a decline higher than the entire population of most countries.
• By 2050 South Korea will have a 1:1 ratio between working adults and retirees.
• The United States and Australia (the latter in the South but in terms of economics a Global North country) may be the exception to the rule for richer countries with projections showing under 24% of their populations aged 65 or older in 2050.

Canada’s Aging Population Produces Action on Immigration

Here in Canada, a Global North country where I live, demographic shifts are projecting that people over 65 will increase by 20% as a percentage of the total population in the next two decades. The revenue that the Canadian government receives comes from people between 15 and 64 who provide the economic muscle and wealth necessary to fund pension plans and old age security payments.

Canada is not unique in this respect. In France and other European Union countries, the demographic trends are similar. And notably, when the French government tried to raise the age of citizens to be eligible for pensions by two years, the response in the country was mass protests. That’s how charged the issue of changing demographic patterns is becoming as Global North populations age.

Another characteristic of Canada’s population and the populations of many European countries, Japan, South Korea and others is that those able to have children are not reproducing enough to sustain existing population levels. In Canada, the government’s answer to this challenge is to invite more immigrants into the country. The country hopes to drive population growth this way and continue to fund what will be a greater percentage of grey-haired Canadians in the future. From where will these Canadians arrive? Largely from Global South countries with surplus youth and insufficient resources to employ and sustain them.

A Lop-Sided Demographic World

In a 2016 New York Times article, the writer described this new reality as being lop-sided with too many elderly in rich countries, and the young disproportionately large in the not-so-rich countries. Nothing, since that article was written, has changed.

For example, today, more than 1 in 5 youth in China (considered an up-and-coming middle-income country) are unemployed. And according to the African Development Bank, for every 10 to 12 million entering the African labour market annually, there are only 3 million jobs. What does that mean for the 7 to 9 million who are unemployed?

Climate Change and the Global Demographic Imbalance

Add climate change to the mix which disproportionately impacts Global South countries economically far more than those in the Global North, and you have a recipe for an impending demographic crisis. Extreme weather events plus population increases will fuel a growing number of climate change refugees from the Global South driven from homes by higher sea levels, torrential rains, persistent droughts, disease vector changes, and rising atmospheric temperatures.

Many countries in the Global South will see heat indices surpassing livable outdoor conditions in the height of summer. Much of the tropics may become inhospitable to human existence outdoors. Where will those driven out go?

The Global North countries whether they like it or not will need to provide refuge for those displaced populations of the Global South. And when you consider the aging problem in Global North countries and their need to balance working populations versus those in retirement, the influx of climate refugees may be a good long-term solution.

The planet and humanity are facing a moment in time where the redistribution of the finite assets of our home world need to be front and centre in the minds and acts of government policymakers.