Climate Scientists Expect The Worst This Century And They Are Depressed

A recent survey of 843 climate experts from around the world produced a very discouraging picture. Of the 380 who responded to this survey conducted by The Guardian newspaper, the results indicated a growing sense of pessimism in our ability to reduce the impact of our presence on the planet. The breakdown by responders seen in the graph below represents a tragedy in sight, human failure in the extreme.

The breakdown in poll results shows that:

• 77% of responders thought global temperatures would reach at least 2.5 Celsius (4.5 Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels.
• 42% predicted temperatures would rise 3 Celsius (5.4 Fahrenheit) or higher.
• 6% believed we would contain the rise below or no more than 1.5 Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit).

The sense of frustration and hopelessness among many in the scientific community is palpable. They blame governments and industry for not responding to the science that has laid out the facts for decades. They see that our leaders have betrayed the planet and all living things on it. The worst-case scenarios of dystopian futures that science fiction writers feast on may become our future reality.

Climate scientists continue to gather data because as they say, the work needs to be done, but the lack of concerted action in response to what they report is frustrating, to say the least, and depressing. As stated by Dr. Ruth Cerezo-Mota in an article authored by Damian Carrington, Environment Editor of The Guardian, “I really thought governments were ready to listen to the science, to act in the people’s best interest…they can’t say they didn’t know.”

Cerezo-Mota lives in Mérida on the Yucatán peninsula. She notes that atmospheric heating is ramping up with temperatures in her area hitting maximum daytime highs of 47 Celsius (116.6 Fahrenheit) this last summer, with nighttimes only dropping to 38 Celsius (100 Fahrenheit). That’s warmer than body temperature and potentially lethal. Mexico has seen untold deaths from climate-change-related excess heat.

The heightened temperatures have happened because of a combination of anthropogenic climate change and a strong mid-Pacific cyclical El Niño. Although we may not see temperatures equal to these highs until the next cycle, it is just as likely that thermometer readings will continue to climb. Cerezo-Mota states, “There is not a safe place for anyone.”

Since the late 1980s, the United Nations has taken the expertise of the best climate scientists and environmentalists and produced six reports spanning 35 years. We know these as The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports. These scientists are the ones that The Guardian reached out to with its survey. Just over 45% responded to the request which, if you do these types of surveys, represents a pretty high number.

Lisa Schipper from the University of Bonn sees temperatures rising 3 Celsius (5.4 Fahrenheit) by the end of the century. She describes the results of inaction as leading to a bleak future “with substantial pain and suffering for the people of the Global South.” Another scientist wrote that the responses of governments have been “reprehensible” and that “we live in an age of fools.”

There is no doubt that the scientists’ finger-pointing is focused on governments. But the truth is much of the environmental damage being done is coming from a small number of bad actors. In recent data gathering and analysis done by the global not-for-profit think tank called InfluenceMap, it reported that 78 corporate and state-producing entities were responsible for 70% of global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions between 2016 and 2022. These companies included state-controlled and investor-owned businesses.

The Guardian tracks the 122 top polluters on the planet. In a recent report it states that 65% of these have been state-owned and that instead of reducing CO2 emissions, they continued to produce more. Richard Heede of the Carbon Majors Database which tracks the fossil fuel industry describes the action of both state and corporate actors as “morally reprehensible.” He states, “Don’t blame consumers who have been forced to be reliant on oil and gas due to government capture by oil and gas companies.”

China has been most recently the largest producer of global carbon emissions (mostly from burning coal) at 25.79% of the total. Historically, however, state-run and investor-owned companies have accounted for 31% of global CO2 emissions. The carbon majors include Saudi Aramco, Gazprom, National Iranian Oil Company, Coal India, Exxon Mobil, Shell, BP and Chevron. These fossil-fuel producers earn hundreds of billions of dollars in profits and continue to lobby governments not to act on the climate change file.

States Tzeporah Berman, International Program Director at Stand.earth and Chair of the Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty, “The  Carbon Majors research shows us exactly who is responsible for the lethal heat, extreme weather, and air pollution that is threatening lives and wreaking havoc on our oceans and forests.” Berman describes how these state and investor-owned companies spend “millions on advertising campaigns about being part of a sustainable solution, all the while continuing to invest in more fossil fuel extraction.”

What’s even worse is government enablers that ignore the scientific evidence in support of fossil-fuel producers. Several provincial governments and the federal government of Canada fit that category. The current Alberta government has stopped renewable projects while continuing to promote the expansion of fossil fuel production. Canada’s federal government after buying an incomplete pipeline project just completed it allowing Alberta’s producers to increase their production and earn bigger profits.

If you are a climate scientist or environmentalist, it is no wonder you are finger-pointing and depressed.