Environment Climate Change Science Transportation Ships Water

Experiencing Climate Change First Hand on the Danube River

September 7, 2015

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September 7, 2015 – It has been over two weeks since I posted anything to this blog site. The reason, my wife and I celebrated our 42nd anniversary by taking a scenic river cruise on the Danube. Except that most of the time our ship was moored to the shore (see my photo below) while we took buses to see the sites. At one point we were even forced to cast anchor midstream west of Budapest while the crew tried to ride out low water and a lack of mooring sites because so many other boats were in the same predicament.

The reason – extreme drought conditions leading to low river levels in many parts of the river basin. As one of the great rivers of Europe (second only to the Volga) the Danube stretches 2,850 kilometers (1,770 miles) from Germany’s Black Forest to the Black Sea touching 19 different European countries. It consistently in the past has produced twice the amount of water volume of Africa’s Nile. But in the last decade the reliability of the water flow is being called into question as extremes of flooding have been followed by extremes of drought.

The current drought is not the first in this century. In 2003 a prolonged drought resulted in water levels falling to the lowest levels in over a century with ships from Southern Germany to Romania stranded. Even the nuclear power plant at Cernavoda in Romania had to shut down because coolant water intakes ended up above the river surface. The plant remained off line for more than a month.

The 2015 drought is remarkably similar. Day time temperatures in the mid-30s Celsius (plus 90 Fahrenheit) which we experienced on the tour matched those experienced throughout the basin in 2003. Total precipitation levels appear similar as well with rainfall significantly below average. As we drove through stunted brown fields of corn (maize) and sunflowers, it was apparent that farms were being hard hit. One guide told us it is likely that more than 90% of farms will become insolvent and declare bankruptcy.

So who is to blame? Is this acts of nature? To some degree “yes” but for the most part “no.” Why do I say that? Because we humans have been trying to manage the river by interfering with it in the name of conservation. We have built navigational aids to make the entire river accessible. We have built dams to raise water levels. The consequences for river flow downstream from these sites has often not been considered. We have done all these things thinking the Danube is consistent, that the river flow within 10% either way will always be.

But evidence shows otherwise. For example in 2002, 2005 and again in 2013 severe floods were followed by drought conditions. So much for consistency. The 2013 floods were described as the worst in almost 500 years. The current drought may rival the worst since 1840.

For operators of river cruise ships that rely on a sustainable river flow these extremes do not bode well. They are canaries in the coal mine. And yet the industry operators continue to build boats churning them out by the dozen every year. One of our tour guides stated tongue in cheek that at the current rate of building by 2020 you won’t sail the Danube anymore, you’ll just walk from boat to boat along its full length.

The current governing body that oversees the Danube River basin is the ICPDR (International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River). It is a consortium of the national stakeholders in the river. Right now the management of the river is a reflection of the disjointed efforts of nations each with its own agenda. It is hoped by 2027 that all the nations of the Danube will be aligned to a common purpose in perpetuating a sustainable river. Let’s hope it is not too late.