How Futurists, Scientists, and Business People Predict the Future

August 12, 2019 – I came across an August 5th article published in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the folks who invented the Doomsday Clock, which outlined how our future is seen by different professions from those in business to scientists, technologists, and academics. The article described a 2017 survey of readers of the journals Nature, and Science, readers of the Harvard Business Review, and academics who described themselves as futurists.

They were asked to describe what science and technology trends in a variety of fields would dominate in the year 2052. The magazine readership chosen was deliberate because these publications are widely read by those who are active in their respective fields. They are researchers, builders, and business executives. Many have graduate and post-graduate degrees. The business readers were largely executives of companies benefiting from technology to help them succeed in their respective sectors.

So how did these groups differ in their view of what lies ahead?

Futurists saw the areas most impacted by 2052 to be in the following fields in descending order: robotics, biotechnology, and energy.

Readers of Science ordered the same three fields with biotechnology first, energy second, and robotics last.

Readers of Nature put biotechnology first, IT and software second, and energy third.

And readers of the Harvard Business Review put renewable energy first, agriculture and food second, and cancer therapies third.

In addition, all groups saw the next 35 years to experience breakthroughs in biomedicine, computer science, and materials science.

Futurists and business people cited artificial intelligence (AI) followed by runner-ups in healthcare, advanced analytics for big data, robotics, energy technologies, synthetic biology, and genetic engineering.

The business group also had high expectations for space travel, while the scientists expressed greatest confidence in AI and biotechnology.

All the groups saw technological convergence a dominant force for change whether in biomedicine, robotics, analytics, or AI.

The readers of Harvard Business Review were asked about social versus business impacts from advances in technology. They cited for both, food for the world, the curing of cancer, and reversing climate change. Food for the world was fourth on their list, and climate change reversal was fifth. Business readers added renewable energy and a secure Internet. Those citing the social over business technological advances included pandemic preparedness and genetic modification of humans.

What didn’t these readers expect to see happening by 2052?

For Harvard Business Review readers they cited:

• The Singularity (Ray Kurzweil’s prediction of the merging of humans and AI
• Commercial space stations
• Reversing climate change
• A secure Internet

Futurists, scientists, and technologists cited:

• Unified field theory
• Translating quantum state models to help solve technological and behavioural challenges in the larger world
• Cataloging the causes of all forms of cancer
• Anti-gravity technology
• The mapping of genomics to disease prediction
• Proof of sentient life on other planets
• Understanding the unidirectional nature of time
• Reverse-engineering the human brain
• Commercial space stations and off-world human habitats
• Reversing climate change

Whether futurists, scientists, technologists, or business people, none saw the free market as capable of effectively dealing with the social, environmental and technology issues without government involvement. Seen as a priority was a renewed effort to educate humanity in the fields of science, technology, engineering, arts, and mathematics to produce those with both technical and creative skills needed for a sustainable future.