Italian-Swiss Border Change is the First of Many Geopolitical Adjustments Expected in the 21st Century

When Italy and Switzerland established the boundary between their two countries, the consequences of global warming were not considered. The glaciers in the Alps were seen as immutable. Glacier ridgelines and snowfield boundaries appeared unchanging and therefore excellent markers to delineate the border. Well, not anymore!

Last week, the two countries signed an agreement to rectify their common border. The Swiss Glacier Monitoring Network (Glamos), the Swiss Commission for Cryosphere Observation, and the Swiss Academy of Sciences are cooperatively measuring alpine icefields. In 2022, Swiss glaciers lost 6% of their volume. In 2023, 4% vanished. The country’s glaciers have been melting rapidly and the melt is accelerating. The recent losses of the last two years equal the total ice volume lost between 1960 and 1990.

The iconic Matterhorn is one of the areas where icefield losses have required Italy and Switzerland to redefine the border. Last month Switzerland approved a border change established by a joint Italian-Swiss commission. Italy is expected to agree. The area involved has seen the Theodul Glacier lose close to 25% of its ice volume from 1973 to 2010 exposing underlying rock, changing drainage patterns, and causing as much as a 150-metre (almost 500 feet) shift to existing ski infrastructure like lifts and runs.

Where wars and treaties have redefined political boundaries in the past, now climate change is entering the picture. Melting glaciers in the Himalayas are likely to cause adjustments to the borders between China and India, India and Pakistan, India, China, Nepal and Bhutan, and they are also shifting the course of rivers that serve as boundaries while impacting freshwater access.

Climate change is affecting coastlines as sea levels rise. The islands in the Pacific and Indian Oceans are the most threatened. Tuvalu and Kiribati, two Pacific island nations have been looking at artificial land reclamation similar to what China has been doing by building on the top of shallow reefs to assert territorial claims in the South China Sea. The two countries are considering floating settlements while Kiribati has banked land in Fiji to relocate its entire population. Both island nations, however, have claimed retention of existing territorial rights based on present locations if and when their land and homes disappear.

The Swiss-Italian agreement is the first to establish a formal peaceful border adjustment process attributed to climate change. Adjusting borders affects land ownership, infrastructure, water and mining rights. The success of the commission model the two countries created could become the legal framework for all border adjustments in the future between countries where climate change has affected ownership and extraterritorial claims.

Besides the extraterritorial sea claims made by Tuvalu and Kiribati, other parts of the world ocean are under dispute as climate change alters where ships can go. For example, the melting of Arctic Ocean sea ice is making shipping possible across the Northwest Passage, the route that winds its way through Canada’s Northern Archipelago. Arctic geopolitics involves Russia, Canada, Scandinavia, the United States, and countries wanting to use these increasingly open shipping lanes. By mid-century, the Arctic Ocean is expected to provide ice-free shipping for more than four months annually, a 400% increase from 2010.

Arctic shipping has been on the increase in the 21st century. The number of ships operating in Arctic waters between 2013 and 2023 grew by 37%. The distances sailed increased by 111%. In 2022, 1,661 ships traversed portions of the Arctic Ocean. Compared to global shipping these numbers are small. Maritime experts predict Arctic shipping will account for 2% of global maritime traffic by 2030, and 5% by 2050.

The Northwest Passage isn’t the only maritime route where shippers seek the unrestricted right of passage within Canada’s maritime boundaries. The Northern Sea Route across the roof of Asia is seeing increased use. Shippers are making similar claims to the right of passage within Russian and Scandinavian maritime boundaries.

A more ominous disruption from climate change that could affect country borders is migration and displacement. By 2050, states Cate Twining-Ward, Senior Consultant in Environmental Justice and Climate Policy at the Columbia Climate School, there will be 1.2 billion climate refugees. Population displacement at this level is bound to cause geopolitical disruptions and conflict among nations.

A good example is the United States southern border where the country has felt the pressure from growing numbers of South and Central American migrants and displaced persons. They are fleeing lands where prolonged drought is causing economic disruption, and where conflict among groups seeking to control ever-diminishing assets is on the rise.

Extraterritorial conflicts from pressures such as these directly related to climate change remain a threat. The consequence of climate change and how it will affect future border adjustments remains unknown. Current international jurisdictional bodies are not equipped to handle the volume of displacement projected by the mid-21st century and beyond.