NASA, Artemis, and Mars Timelines – Part 1: Something Is Amiss

NASA Has Its Plans

As the return of humans to the Moon’s surface is pushed back further in this decade, timelines on NASA projects are beginning to make little sense. Three that immediately come to mind are:

1. The Mars Sample Return (MSR) Mission
2. The Artemis Program Return to the Moon
3. The Mission to Land Humans on Mars

Here are NASA’s current estimated timelines:

For the Moon:

2026 Artemis II will circumnavigate the Moon. This mission was originally planned for 2024 but now is delayed.

2027 Artemis III will land astronauts on the Moon. The mission involves the Space Launch System (SLS) as the booster mated to the Orion capsule which will voyage to lunar rendezvous with a SpaceX-modified Starship called the HLS. The astronauts will transfer to the HLS to descend to the lunar surface and then return to Orion for the voyage back to Earth. The HLS will remain parked in lunar orbit for the next Artemis mission.

2028 Artemis IV adds another NASA build, the Lunar Gateway, a mini-space station that will serve as temporary quarters for astronauts and a docking station for future lunar missions. SpaceX’s HLS will dock with the Gateway once it is in orbit. The crew of Orion will transfer through the Gateway to the HLS and descend to the lunar surface.

2030 Artemis V will be a repeat performance with likely a longer stay on the lunar surface to begin establishing the infrastructure for a permanent lunar habitat.

2031 Artemis VI will be a repeat with additional infrastructure put in place for a habitat that can be continually occupied.

For Mars:

2033 The Perseverance rover has been collecting samples that NASA wants to bring back to Earth for study. This was to be the original MSR mission date which because of budget constraints is being reworked with two alternative options under consideration and, as a result, an altered timeline.

2035-38 NASA’s long-announced planned date for a three-year plus crewed expedition going to and returning from Mars. The proposed stay varies, from 90 to 500 Earth days based on a favourable window for return.

2040 This is the MSR date based on two revised mission plans currently under consideration. There is still value in Perseverance samples since they have been collected from the Jezzero Crater with its many features indicating it was once a watery place. The MSR collection may arrive later than returning astronauts with samples they bring back.

Commercial Space Operators Have Plans

Several commercial partners have worked with NASA since the Agency was first established. Boeing is the prime contractor for the SLS. Lockheed Martin is the prime for the Orion capsule. The European Space Agency (ESA) and its commercial contractors have built the European Space Module (ESM) attached to Orion. The ESM provides Orion with its primary propulsion systems, solar panels for power and life support systems for the crew.

Three space partners have built rocket systems of their own. These include the United Launch Alliance (ULA is a Boeing Lockheed Martin partnership), SpaceX and Blue Origin.

One of the ULA partners, Boeing, has built the Starliner, a space taxi designed to deliver crews to the International Space Station (ISS). It has problems.

SpaceX has developed the Dragon spacecraft as an ISS taxi and for other uses. An extended version of it will be used to de-orbit the ISS after 2030.

The third space partner is Blue Origin whose BE-4 engines power ULA’s Vulcan rocket. Its New Shepard suborbital rocket has had several successful crewed flights to the edge of space. It recently launched the New Glenn rocket designed to deliver payloads to orbit, the Moon, and beyond.

Boeing, a ULA partner, is currently the prime contractor for the SLS, the Artemis launch vehicle.

Founded by Elon Musk, SpaceX’s mission has from the outset been about making humans a multi-planetary species.

Blue Origin wants to make the Moon and the orbiting spaces above Earth the manufacturing hub of Earth while turning the planet into a green oasis.

SpaceX and Blue Origin both are involved in contracts with NASA. They also have their plans for the Moon and Mars. Here are the timelines.

For the Moon:

2027 NASA has contracted SpaceX to deliver a version of its Starship, the Human Landing System (HLS) for use in the Artemis III and IV lunar missions.

2030 NASA has contracted Blue Origin to deliver the Blue Moon Landing System for the Artemis V lunar mission.

2033 Blue Origin plans to land a lunar habitat on the Moon to establish a permanent human presence there. Who will be its occupants?

For Mars:

2026 SpaceX plans repeated Starship tests through 2025 to prove the design is reliable. When successful, SpaceX plans to launch 5 unmanned missions to Mars to demonstrate interplanetary transit and landing capability.

2028 – 29 During the next optimal Earth-Mars transit window, SpaceX plans to send a Starship with a human crew aboard to land on Mars. This would beat NASA’s plans by six years. If delayed, the mission would move to 2031-32. If the plan is to stay on Mars only for the duration of the same transit window, the expedition would visit for no more than 30 Earth days (A Martian day is approximately 30 minutes longer than an Earth day).

2040 – 50 Although SpaceX doesn’t mention details after its first successful Martian landing and return, it is likely crewed missions will follow throughout the 2030s spaced out every 24 to 26 months. The eventual goal is to deliver the tools, equipment and people to establish a permanent self-sustaining settlement by mid-century, and a city of a million by 2100.

What Is Not Reflected in These Plans

The new Trump administration has nominated private astronaut, Jared Isaacman, to be NASA’s new administrator. Isaacman has led two private space missions using SpaceX systems and may favour using Starships to return astronauts to the Moon. He could cancel the SLS, Orion and the Lunar Gateway which would save the Agency billions of dollars. The timelines may alter as well if Starship becomes a proven and reliable technology for going to and from the Moon and then taking NASA astronauts to Mars.

The other factor not mentioned is a potential revival of the Space Race of the 1960s between the United States and the Soviet Union. After NASA landed astronauts on the Moon in 1969, a period of space cooperation began which remains to this day with Russia, the Soviet Union’s successor, a partner on the International Space Station. Elsewhere, Russia has its plans for the Moon which may include a partnership with China to establish a permanent lunar colony.

The next race for the U.S. to claim the high ground of space is no longer with the Russians. It is now with the Chinese. China has plans to put taikonauts on the Moon and eventually Mars. The Russians have their plans to put cosmonauts on the Moon. Together they can combine resources to overcome the deficiencies each has in their current space programs.

Roscosmos, the Russian space agency, has unveiled plans for a future lunar habitat by the end of this decade or in the early 2030s. China has a stated goal to be the dominant space country by 2050. Does that mean a permanent Chinese presence on the Moon and Mars? On the former, certainly. On the latter, not necessarily.

So there you have it. NASA and its partners have space ambitions. SpaceX is jockeying to get to Mars. Blue Origin wants to dominate the space between the Moon and Earth and change the world. NASA’s Isaacman has a challenge to make all of these various ambitions work together while saving money for the Agency, freeing up the program for scientific space exploration.

What’s left to be said? I will tell you in Part 2 where I describe some of the complexities of humans travelling through space to the Moon and Mars, and what solutions and inventions are needed to meet some of the remaining challenges for all of the above to succeed.