Did the Planet Gain From the Latest Annual COP Agreement?

At this year’s COP, the 28th meeting of the world’s nations and parties interested in addressing climate change, the fossil fuel industry had a prominent seat at the table. They were there in force with more than 2,400 lobbyists and industry representatives. They were there because:

1. The global use of fossil fuels has been seen as the largest contributor to rising greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere. The companies that produce, refine, and distribute fossil fuels, therefore, have the most to lose if restrictions such as a production or emissions cap are placed on them.
2. The CEO of Adnoc was the president of the COP. Adnoc is the largest fossil fuel company in the United Arab Emirates. Having the post put him in a conflict of interest leading to him seeking to protect his day job while paying some dues to nations and groups trying to end the world’s dependence on fossil fuels.
3. Being at the COP table allowed the industry to play defence and ensure that even if there was an agreement to begin transitioning from fossil fuel use, the timetable wouldn’t impact operations immediately reducing revenue and profits.

Considering the final statement from the COP, the fossil fuel industry, particularly oil and gas, saved itself for another day and frankly did better than holding the status quo. For the price of committing to sustainable practices and a future transition from fossil fuels, they are to continue to invest tens of billions of dollars in new projects and operations while flirting with carbon capture technology in its current unproven state while making carbon offset purchases.

Carbon capture became a mainstream obsession at COP28. Of the lobbyists and delegates there, 475 represented the carbon capture and storage industry (CCS). Touted by the fossil fuel industry as the planet’s panacea, CCS was seen as a technology that could allow the fossil fuel industry to continue to exist. Whether attached to coal, oil or gas-fired thermal powerplants, or fossil fuel extraction and operations sites, CCS and its cousin direct air capture (DAC) would allow us to have our cake and eat it too. The reality of CCS, however, is a very different picture. When the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency looked at CCS technology to mitigate climate change, in its reports it noted the country would have to bring online a new CCS or DAC project every day between now and 2032 to meet the country’s carbon reduction goals by that year.

Today, there are 40 projects where carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) is presently operational, all the while as many as 500 projects are in various stages of planning and development. Around 50 more should be operational by 2030 which will bring the total to below 100. At the present pace, CCS will capture a pittance of what is needed to mitigate climate change. Putting all our eggs in the CCS basket, therefore, despite the COP28 hype, seems a pipedream.

Dr. Friederike Otto, climate scientist at Imperial College London and co-founder in 2015 of World Weather Attribution told the Financial Times, “The lukewarm agreement reached at Cop28 will cost every country, no matter how rich, no matter how poor. Everyone loses. With every vague verb, every empty promise in the final text, millions more people will enter the frontline of climate change and many will die.” She goes on to describe COP as becoming “a trade fair for fossil fuel companies” and “the last attempt by those who don’t want change.”