Would an AI have predicted the Russian Revolution or the eventual fall of the U.S.S.R? If the AI had access to the historical, economic and demographic data of the time, remember, there wasn’t an Internet back then or a digitized version of the Encyclopedia Britannica for it to study, I think it would have predicted both results.
The future isn’t written. It will always be uncertain. The psychohistory of Isaac Asimov’s “Foundation” is science fiction. Delving into history, however, does provide context for future possibilities. We are amassing vast amounts of data with it doubling in months today. Historical context and collective experience are equipping us better to tackle current challenges and predict what lies ahead whether it is human futurists making prognostications or AIs acting as our oracles.
When we study the cyclical nature of history and thoughtfully examine and interpret our past, we are more informed and better prepared to be futurists.
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