April 8, 2016 – Futurists are constantly asked whether robots will eventually take over almost all jobs. The usual response is that robots will change the nature of work humans do, creating new fields of opportunity. Where robots will replace humans is in:
- jobs requiring repetitive acts such as those on assembly lines
- jobs in warehousing and logistical operations
- jobs requiring producing repetitive reports from massive amounts of data
- hazardous environment jobs
- transportation jobs
In all of these robots will outperform humans. That’s because the jobs involved require the operator to follow repetitive and specific rules, or a narrow range of processes. In the past week I have written a three-part series on education and the 4th Industrial Revolution. In these postings I have talked about the potential massive disruption we may encounter if we do not engage youth by teaching for the 21st century. That means robot proofing youth’s future.
A large number of studies indicate that up to one half of current jobs within advanced economies will be automated within two decades.
Marjory Blumenthal, a science and technology analyst, in a 2014 Pew Report on robots and the future of work writes, “In a given context, automated devices like robots may displace more than they create. But they also generate new categories of work, giving rise to second and third-order effects. Also, there is likely to be more human-robot collaboration — a change in the kind of work opportunities available.”
It is teaching to these new categories arising from an increasingly automated world that will be the key to robot proofing the current generation entering the world of elementary, high school and post-secondary education. That’s why robot proofing strategies are critical. Here are a few:
- Teach youth to excel in unstructured work. This is work where objects or subject matter are non-predictive. Robots are good at predictable tasks only.
- Encourage creative pursuits with cultural value. Robots can execute tasks but until now have no sense on how to appreciate the artistic or cultural significance of output.
- Develop skills around interpersonal intelligence including communication, negotiation, persuasion and social interaction. Robotic intelligence is based on switches that are “off” or “on,” or “if” and “then.”
- Robert Kennedy once said “Some men see things as they are and ask why. Others dream things that never were and ask why not.” For the first sentence substitute the word “robot” for “men.” Dreaming is not something robots do.
- Teach not only cognitive skills but also adaptation skills. Robots can emulate routine cognition. Robots can do the task they have been built for. Robots cannot adapt.
- Encourage “outside-the-box” thinking. Sometimes humans can make quantum leaps in serendipitous situations producing breakthrough results. Robots don’t do serendipity.
- Teach youth to accrue baseline knowledge in a number of fields, but teach them also how to find and assess knowledge sources. Computers as resources of information make knowledgeable people that much more effective.
- And finally teach about the building and servicing of advanced robotic and computing devices. For sure youth with these skills will always have a job.
If blue-collar work is being automated, and even white-collar work, what is hardest to automate? The PINK-collar work, largely as described in this article. See also: http://www.mhealthtalk.com/automation-robots-and-the-pink-collar-future/.
Automation improves productivity with less labor, but it’s capital intensive, driving even more wealth to the very top. The problem now, in the Information Age versus the Industrial Age, is that tech innovation is advancing exponentially as described in Moore’s Law. The education system is struggling to keep up, but so is public policy. And rather than speeding up, the political process is stagnating with the corrupting influence of big money and the ability to buy elections and direct policy to favor special interests over public interests.