Artificial Intelligence Politics and Technology

Conversations About AI: Three AIs Explain Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine

February 16, 2024

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AI answers why Russia invaded Ukraine — Image credit: Tes for schools, Tes Global Ltd.

How would they respond? what information would they glean from their training datasets and Internet sources in responding? LLM AIs are trained using enormous datasets of text. They use neural network deep learning AI technologies to analyze and predict sequences of words obtained from these datasets. Human programmers influence word relationship sequences when they create AI algorithms. That’s because different programmers, themselves, have biases, or may have different levels of language facility, and may see word relationships differently.

It is far more than just predicting what word follows another, and how AIs do this remains somewhat of a mystery to their creators.

Copilot

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is a complex geopolitical event with deep historical roots. Here are some key points to consider:

Historical Context:
- Ukraine was part of the Soviet Union until its dissolution in 1991. After gaining independence, Ukraine faced challenges in establishing a stable government and economy.
- Crimea, a region in southern Ukraine, has a significant Russian-speaking population and historical ties to Russia. In 1954, Crimea was transferred from the Russian Soviet Federative Socialist Republic to the Ukrainian SSR.
- Tensions between ethnic Ukrainians and ethnic Russians persisted, especially in Crimea and eastern Ukraine.
Euromaidan Protests (2013-2014):
- In late 2013, mass protests erupted in Kyiv (the capital of Ukraine) known as the Euromaidan movement. Demonstrators demanded closer ties with the European Union and protested against corruption and authoritarianism.
- President Viktor Yanukovych, seen as pro-Russian, fled the country in February 2014 after violent clashes. A pro-European interim government took power.
Annexation of Crimea (2014):
- In March 2014, Russia annexed Crimea following a controversial referendum. The international community largely considers this annexation illegal.
- Russia cited the need to protect ethnic Russians and Russian speakers in Crimea as justification for the annexation.
Conflict in Eastern Ukraine (2014-present):
- After Crimea’s annexation, armed conflict erupted in eastern Ukraine between Ukrainian forces and Russian-backed separatists.
- The Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic declared independence in parts of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.
- Russia has been accused of providing military support to the separatists, including troops, weapons, and equipment.
Geopolitical Motivations:
- Russia views Ukraine as part of its sphere of influence and opposes its alignment with Western institutions like NATO and the EU.
- Control over Crimea provides Russia with strategic access to the Black Sea and its naval base in Sevastopol.
- The conflict also serves as a means for Russia to assert its influence in the region and challenge the post-Cold War order.
International Response:
- The international community, including the United Nations, the European Union, and the United States, condemned Russia’s actions and imposed sanctions.
- Diplomatic efforts, such as the Minsk agreements, aimed to find a peaceful resolution but have not fully succeeded.

In summary, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is a multifaceted issue involving historical, cultural, and geopolitical factors. It has had profound consequences for regional stability and international relations. Diplomatic efforts continue, but the situation remains tense.

Gemini

Google Gemini launched last December to compete with ChatGPT and Copilot. Gemini was formerly called Bard. It is a chatbot designed to interact with humans by mimicking their style and writing structure. Like Copilot, it can produce more than text including software code, audio, images and video output.

When I asked it the Russia-Ukraine question, here was its response.

The reasons for the Russian invasion of Ukraine are complex and multifaceted, and there is no single definitive answer. However, some of the key factors that have been cited include:

Historical grievances: Russia has long held historical claims to Ukraine, and some analysts believe that the invasion was motivated by a desire to restore Russian control over territory that was once part of the Soviet Union.
Security concerns: Russia has also expressed concerns about NATO expansion eastward, and has said that it sees Ukraine’s potential membership in the alliance as a threat to its security.
Domestic politics: Some analysts believe that the invasion was also motivated by domestic political considerations, such as a desire to boost Putin’s popularity at home.

It is important to note that these are just some of the possible reasons for the invasion and that the full picture is likely to be more complex. The situation in Ukraine is still unfolding, and it is difficult to say definitively what the long-term consequences will be.

According to a BBC News article published on February 24, 2022, “Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered troops into Ukraine in what he called a ‘special military operation’. Explosions have been reported in several Ukrainian cities, including the capital Kyiv.” The article also states that “Mr Putin said the action was needed to protect people in eastern Ukraine from what he called ‘genocide’ by the Ukrainian government – a claim widely disputed by Western leaders.”

The invasion of Ukraine has been condemned by the international community and has led to a number of sanctions being imposed on Russia. The full impact of the invasion is still unknown, but it is clear that it has had a devastating impact on the people of Ukraine.

Monica

Monica is an AI personal office assistant developed at the University of California – Berkeley and currently a product of Anthropic, a research and development spinoff company of former members of OpenAI, the creators of ChatGPT. Google and Amazon are both investors in Anthropic. Before Monica, Anthropic had launched Claude, an LLM
AI, early in 2023. It’s not clear whether Monica is the next iteration of Claude or just a renaming of its AI.

Monica’s developers claim that it understands the complexity of human interactions and interpersonal dynamics. Decoding interpersonal queues is a tall order for an AI. It means that Monica’s natural language processing skills go beyond what word follows to analyzing the emotional intent and tone of word sequences. How this ability translates when asked the same question follows.

The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has its roots in a complex interplay of historical, political, and geopolitical factors. Here’s a comprehensive overview of the reasons behind Russia’s invasion of Ukraine:

Historical Context:

Imperial Legacy: Ukraine was part of the Russian Empire for centuries, and many Russians view Ukraine as historically and culturally connected to Russia. This perception has influenced Russian foreign policy and territorial ambitions.
Soviet Union Collapse: The dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991 led to Ukraine’s independence, but it also left behind unresolved territorial disputes and ethnic tensions.

Geopolitical Rivalry:

NATO Expansion: Russia perceives NATO’s eastward expansion as a threat to its national security. Ukraine’s desire to join NATO has been a major point of contention between Russia and the West.
Regional Influence: Russia seeks to maintain its influence in its neighbouring regions, including Ukraine. It fears that a Western-aligned Ukraine could diminish its power and prestige.

Political Factors:

Domestic Politics: Russian President Vladimir Putin’s desire to consolidate power and maintain popularity at home has played a role in his aggressive foreign policy.
Regional Control: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine can be seen as an attempt to exert control over a strategically important region that serves as a buffer zone between Russia and the European Union.

Economic Considerations:

Natural Resources: Ukraine possesses valuable natural resources, including fertile agricultural land and mineral deposits. Russia’s control over these resources could strengthen its economy and provide leverage in international negotiations.
Energy Security: Ukraine’s role as a transit country for Russian gas to Europe gives Russia a degree of economic leverage over European nations.

In summary, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the result of a combination of historical grievances, geopolitical competition, domestic political considerations, and economic interests. It reflects Russia’s desire to maintain its influence, secure its borders, and prevent Ukraine from aligning with the West.

Comparing the three responses shows some interesting divergence.

Copilot’s reads like a shopping list or at best a news summary that ticks all the boxes.

Gemini chose to include text from a BBC report that aired the week of the Russian “special military operation” that began in February 2022. I call Gemini’s response a precis when compared to Copilot.

Monica’s response was more nuanced and analytical. It was the one that I found to be the least robotic and the most interpretive.

I would love to hear your take on this and invite you to suggest other questions to pose to these three LLM AIs and others who arrive on the scene. And please don’t use these AI responses as answers to the Russia-Ukraine war question for your next political science or history class.