Something Weird is Going on in the Arctic

November 18, 2016 – Sea ice in the Arctic reaches seasonal lows in September each year. This year was no different other than the fact that the ice cover this year was even less than in 2012, the lowest recorded year for September sea ice coverage. That’s not weird but it is indicative of the recent history of sea ice coverage in the Arctic which is trending downward.

So what’s weird? Well the Arctic above 80 degrees north is now dark 24 hours a day. This should be deep freeze time but strangely it isn’t. Take a look below at the temperature graph recorded Tuesday, November 15th by the Danish Meteorological Institute. The Danes who own Greenland are leaders in studying changes to the Arctic.

The red line traces daily mean temperatures. Note the unusual nature of the plot line when compared to the green line beneath which represents mean historic temperatures plotted over a 45-year period beginning in 1957 through 2002. Daniel Swain, climate scientist at UCLA describes what is being observed as “extraordinary.” Temperatures are 20 Celsius (36 Fahrenheit) warmer than normal over most of the Arctic Ocean. A similar spike was observed in 2015 but this one is even more extreme.

What could be the cause?

Speculation is low sea ice, thin sea ice, and a jet stream that no longer acts the way it has in the past. Low sea ice exposes more ocean water to the air above it acting as a heat exchange. Thin ice absorbs more solar energy when the Arctic is in daylight because it is more transparent. And less ice means greater ocean turbulence which further depletes ice coverage.

The excessive warmth in the Arctic combined with the jet stream oscillations is causing extreme cold in Siberia. Meanwhile Canada’s northern archipelago is seeing warm air sweep northward. The pattern has been continuous since October. On Alaska’s North Slope average temperatures are 2 Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) above records previously set in 1998.

The October warmth which was considered unusual is now being matched by even greater warmth in November during the season of darkness. Some areas of the Arctic Ocean are experiencing temperatures 14 Celsius (25 Fahrenheit) higher than normal.

The University of Maine has created a global view of the wacky weather we are experiencing in the Northern Hemisphere. The image below shows temperature departures from the norm for Thursday, November 17. The scale on the right displays the delta from the daily average. Note the amount of red over the Arctic Ocean and the purple over Siberia, two very different extremes.

The weirdness may continue because the longer it takes for the sea ice to reform the more likely temperatures will stay well above normal. This could set up the Arctic in 2017 to sea even more spectacular drops in sea ice coverage. Of course we could see the whole thing reverse but the trending is pointing to a very different scenario of increasing warmth and diminishing sea ice down 7.4% per decade since 1980.

For those of you in eastern North America wondering what that will mean for our winter. The El Nino is no longer a factor this year so the warm and dry winter that the Great Lakes experienced is probably not going to happen. In February last winter we saw what a wobbly jet stream does drawing down a fearsome blast of Arctic cold to the northeast. Climate projections suggest we may see a repeat of these polar vortices this winter with pulses of cold air similar to what Siberia is currently experiencing.

One of the indicators of a warming atmosphere is that weird becomes the new normal.

Related articles across the web

• October has been dramatically warm and dry in much of the United States – and relief is not yet in sight
• 2016 Set to Become Hottest Year on Record
• NASA reveals shocking rate of decline in Arctic sea ice
• The Arctic, as you’ve never seen it: beautiful and in distress