What Will A 2051 COP Meeting Talk About?

In 2051, there will probably be another annual COP meeting to assess our collective successes and failures in the global fight to mitigate and adapt to climate change. What will that meeting say about the preceding 29 years of global climate cooperation or lack thereof?

Will attendees compare their latest geoengineering experiments such as filling the stratosphere with aerosols, or putting into orbit sun-blocking satellites? Will they be talking about iron seeding the ocean to reduce the acidification caused by seawater absorbing excess atmospheric carbon dioxide? Will delegates be comparing notes on threats from leaks at carbon sequestration sites?

Will the latest extreme weather events, coastal inundations from sea level rise, megadroughts, floods, and prolonged heat domes be on the agenda? Will climate refugee resettlement be foremost in the minds of attendees? Will oil and gas companies still be selling products to be burned? Will we still be debating transitioning from coal-fired power plants? Or will nuclear, and renewable energy be predominant?

Will the rich countries of the Global North still balk at providing damage payments to those nations least responsible for the build-up of carbon emissions in the atmosphere? How many island nations will be near or already underwater by then?

How much will our atmospheric mean temperature have risen beyond the preferred 1.5 Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) target let alone the 2 Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) not-to-exceed threshold that was agreed to in Paris at COP21, 36 years previous to this 2051 meeting?

Why pick 2051?

Because it will be the first year past the mid-century mark when the vast majority of countries that signed up in Paris that date as the point in time when we would collectively achieve net-zero emissions. Will we be looking back at that Paris conference and wondering why we couldn’t get our acts together? Or will we be congratulating ourselves collectively on having achieved 80%, 90% or even better in meeting the target milestones pledged back then?

An article appearing in Foreign Policy, in November of 2021 described a fictional Munich Climate Conference occurring in September 2051.  That future conference focused on reverse-engineering global warming and dealing with the vast number of displaced persons because of it.

As the conference opened the skies over Munich were clear, the sun was out, and temperatures were unseasonably warm. Southern Germany had just been ravaged by floods. Mean atmospheric temperatures had already surpassed 2.0 Celsius. The Maldives were already underwater. The people of American Samoa had successfully sued the fossil fuel industry.

And although civilized life continued to go on, the question being asked was for how much longer? When the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report was tabled, it stated it was no longer possible to avoid the consequences of the latent emissions in the atmosphere from the past century. All that could be done was to adapt, avoid the extreme consequences, retreat from rising oceans, and ensure that the worst of future circumstances could be avoided through even more aggressive mitigation efforts.

The keynote speaker at the conference, a climate scientist, and the Director of a future International Centre for Climate Change and Development described a world focused on mitigation led by youth, women and people of colour, and free from the burning of fossil fuels. Coal miners in the Global South and fossil fuel workers from around the world were no longer engaged in emitting industries but rather had found new work focused on climate change reversal and adaptation.

Does this fictional conference reflect the future?

In 2051, if I am still alive, I will be 102 years old. As I think about what to expect 29 years from now, it would be inspiring to think that a climate conference held that year would describe more positive than negative outcomes. Let’s hope so.