Is a Zero-Carbon Economy Feasible?

November 23, 2018 – Yesterday’s Financial Times published an opinion piece written by Adair Turner entitled “A zero-carbon economy is both feasible and affordable.” The author, a businessman, academic, member of Britain’s House of Lords, and Chairperson of the UK Energy Transitions Commission, has written on this subject in the past, and this particular piece represents a good summation of his strong belief that the technologies exist to get us to that future zero-carbon place without lowering global standards of living and leading to a more sustainable relationship with the planet and all of its other denizens.

Turner isn’t the only believer that a zero-carbon economy is doable. The European Commission has developed a low-carbon economy roadmap for its members and hopefully the rest of the planet. Here are some of its projected milestones:

• In 2030 the European Union should cut greenhouse gas emissions to 40% below 1990 levels.
• In 2040 the reduction should be 60%.
• In 2050 the number should grow to 80%.

The European Union intends to share its expertise with other countries so that this can become a planetary-wide collective goal. Where will it find emission reductions?

• energy production is seen as the most likely place where emissions can be eliminated by 2050.
• transportation emission reduction targets would be 60% below 1990 levels by 2050.
• emissions from homes and buildings would be cut by 90% in 2050 through the introduction of passive housing technology, the refurbishing of older homes and buildings, and substituting renewable electricity-generated energy for heating, cooling, cooking and other domestic tasks.
• energy-intensive industries would cut emissions by 80% by 2050, first by targeting energy intensity per unit of production, and also by the introduction of carbon capture technologies for reuse or sequestration.
• agricultural emissions from fertilizer, manure, and livestock will be offset by natural carbon storage through better soil management, reforestation, and improved forest management, and by a global change in our dietary habits moving to lower meat consumption.

Turner states that all of this is feasible if our governments have the political will, and industry and consumers buy into the program. Turner works with the UK’s Energy Transitions Commission, which recently introduced a report entitled “Mission Possible” focusing on decarbonizing the global economy. This report includes contributions from more than 200 industry experts and shows that full decarbonization is technically feasible with the technologies we have today. It states that the transition would cost the global economy less than 0.5% of GDP by 2050. And even this prediction, it states, could be improved if we were to get better at using carbon-intensive materials through recycling and other efficiencies and if we limited carbon-burning transportation choices at a faster rate.

Turner opines that a mere 1.5% of the global land surface could produce all the renewable energy the world needs, and that grids relying on renewable energy could operate at 90% efficiency in delivering power whenever needed through applications of storage technology, building hydrogen energy infrastructure, tapping into bio-energy, and developing new nuclear energy technology models. The cost to achieve this requires a 500% increase in renewable capacity over the next 40 years.

Here are some of his zero-carbon economy predictions should we have the courage to follow this path:

• on the downside, a switch to biofuels to replace jet fuel from fossil fuel sources will add 20% to the cost of air travel.
• switching to green steel will add about 1% to the cost of a new car.
• green shipping will add less than 1% to the cost of imported jeans.
• low-carbon plastics will add 1 cent to the price of a bottle of cola.
• but on the upside, within 10 years, electric vehicles (EVs) will be cheaper to buy than internal combustion engine and diesel vehicles and will cost a fraction to run.

Turner states that “charging for carbon emissions is essential but must be designed to avoid unfair competition.” That means international agreements are essential for uniform carbon pollution pricing, as will be the imposition of carbon-tariffs on non-cooperating countries. Carbon-intensive industrial sectors such as the cement industry will need to have an established carbon pricing model. And to address the transition to biofuels for jet airplanes it will be necessary to impose a transitional strategy that ups the use of zero carbon and synthetic fuel substitutes.

Turner concedes that none of this is easy to do, but knowing that a zero-carbon economy is achievable should give politicians, industry, and consumers the wherewithal to go about making the transition a reality.